Red, Green, and Blue

World marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030, according to a new report from the United States Energy Information Agency. Total energy demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase by 95 percent, while OECD countries are expected to increase consumption by 24 percent.

According to the annual report, International Energy Outlook, the robust growth in demand among the non-OECD nations is largely the result of strong projected economic growth.

In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity is predicted to increase by 5.2 percent per year, as compared with an average of 2.3 percent per year for the OECD countries.

I’ve gleaned some of the notable highlights from the report and digested/paraphrased so you wouldn’t have to. The full report will be out in July.

Carbon dioxide emissions

World carbon dioxide emissions will continue to increase steadily in the IEO2008 reference case, from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 51 percent over the projection period. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most of the non-OECD economies, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing, non-OECD nations. In 2005, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 7 percent. In 2030, however, non-OECD emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 72 percent.

Coal and carbon

In the absence of national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 123 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202 quadrillion Btu in 2030, at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent. Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years, largely because of strong increases in coal use in China, which has nearly doubled since 2000 and is poised to increase strongly in the future. China alone accounts for 71 percent of the increase in world coal consumption in the IEO2008 reference case. The United States and India—both of which also have extensive domestic coal resources—each account for 9 percent of the world increase.

The outlook for fossil-fuel-fired generation could be altered substantially by international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The electric power sector offers some of the most cost-effective opportunities for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in many countries. Coal—the world’s most widely used source of energy for power generation—is also the most carbon-intensive. If a cost, either implicit or explicit, were applied to emitters of carbon dioxide, there are several alternative no- or low-emission technologies that currently are commercially proven or under development, which could be used to replace some coal-fired generation. Implementing the technologies would not require expensive, large-scale changes in the power distribution infrastructure or in electricity-using equipment. It could be more difficult, however, to achieve similar results in end-use sectors like transportation.

Renewable energy

Worldwide, the consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources will increase by 2.1 percent per year in the IEO2008 reference case, from 35 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 59 quadrillion Btu in 2030. In the non-OECD nations, much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in Asia and in Central and South America, where several countries have hydropower facilities either planned or under construction. Among the OECD nations, hydroelectricity is fairly well established, and with the exception of Canada and Turkey there are few plans to undertake major hydroelectric power projects in the future.

Increases in OECD renewable energy consumption are expected to be in the form of non-hydroelectric renewables, especially wind and biomass. Many individual OECD countries have incentives in place to increase the penetration of non-hydroelectric renewable electricity sources, both to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to promote energy security, and in the IEO2008 projections OECD renewable generation grows by 1.6 percent per year from 2005 to 2030, faster than all the other sources of electricity of generation except natural gas.

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Solar energy promoters and marketers have been getting spun up in the blogosphere this past weekend based on a couple of stories that ran in the mainstream media on Friday, June 27, 2008. The frenzy of concern has been generated because the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), announced, via a press release issued on May 29 and updated on June 12 that it would be producing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) to evaluate the “environmental, social, and economic impacts associated with solar energy development on BLM-managed public land in six western States: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.”

As described by the press release, the BLM would require about 22 months to produce the necessary studies to complete the PEIS. During that time, the Bureau would seek public comment, focus on the impacts that would result from the development of 125 applications it has in hand already, defer any new applications, and create a framework for approaches that would best allow the Bureau to mitigate the effects of an expected continued flow of applications after that study period.

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NPR News reports:

A new assessment by the National Intelligence Council — with input from all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies — treats climate change as a security threat.

In a classified report, US Intelligence Agencies have suggested an indirect link between climate change and national security. As NPR news correspondents Ari Shapiro and Tom Gjelton discussed the report Wednesday, June 25^th they explained the “indirect link” and the classified status of the report.

The report suggests the U.S. is capable of handling the impacts of climate change and could even benefit in ways such as longer growing seasons for farmers. On an international level, due to humanitarian disasters and political unrest likely to be a result of climate change, our national security could be at risk.

Tom Gjelton reports that both Democrats and Republicans are trying to use the findings of this report to benefit each side of the political spectrum. Democrats using this as a way to strengthen their efforts to gain funding for programs that support alternative energy and energy independence. Republicans focusing on the speculation aspect of the report and the use of open source materials to do the analysis.

An important point to remember according to Mr. Gjelton is that analysis such as this one are done often by U.S. Intelligence Agencies. They regularly look at multiple scenarios to determine possible outcomes and our ability to respond. Diplomatic reasons are cited for the Classified status of the report, which is classified and the lowest level of classification. He stated that due to some harsh statements about some countries and their ability to handle the effects of Global Warming would be the probable diplomatic reasoning behind the classification.

Related Posts:

• Global Warming Threatens US National Security
• America Struggling to Respond to Climate Change
• McCain and Obama Differ on Energy

Photo Credit: Softpix Techie via Flickr, Creative Commons License

From the administration that brought you:
* A weakened Clean Air Act
* A weakened Clean Water Act
* A weakened dollar
* An unjust war
* An increase in logging contracts
* Strained international relations
* The border fence
*And much, much (MUCH), more…

Now brings you:
*A solution to floods and fires
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U.S. Representatives Jay Inslee (D-WA), Bill Delahunt (D-MA), Jim McDermott (D-WA), and Mike Honda (D-CA) introduced landmark legislation [PDF] on Thursday that will provide security for investments in the renewable-energy sector by guaranteeing rates for renewable-energy generation.

This policy mechanism, also known as a national feed-in tariff, may be the single most effective tool to expand renewable energy development that we know of. Feed-in tariffs have been introduced in several U.S. states, but none have the bills have been passed into law.

The International Energy Agency, the European Commission and the United Kingdom’s Stern Review have determined that feed-in tariff policies in Germany, Spain, France and other European Union countries have achieved larger renewable energy deployment at lower costs, compared with policies in other European Union countries.

The legislation has two principle titles. The first would streamline interconnection standards and the patchwork of policies currently governing interconnection. The second title addresses the actual process of setting of renewable energy tariffs, and what would qualify. This bill would not only apply to the mom and pop backyard wind turbines, and rooftop solar – the tariff extends to projects as large as 20 megawatts! Read the rest of this entry »

Wondering what to do with all that money (not) burning a hole in the pockets of your organic cotton jeans? Well, the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund has launched Give Green, the first bundling website to raise money exclusively for environmental champions and candidates. By donating through Give Green, donors can make it clear to candidates that they care deeply about environmental issues.

“Ever increasing numbers of environmental voters and donors live in every part of the country,” LCVAF President Gene Karpinski said. “But America’s clean energy future is not just a local issue. Give Green makes it easy for concerned citizens to support not only local environmental candidates, but also future members of Congress from across the country who will fight for a clean, renewable energy future.

“Bundling” is the somewhat controversial, but legal, process of accepting political contributions from many small individual donors, such as company employees or union members, and combining donations into one large lump sum, which is then given to a candidate.

Strategically, I applaud the LCV for developing an above-board bundling program that allows donors to target their campaign donations to races other than ‘their own.’ However, the fact that there are no limits to the amount of bundled contributions accepted and distributed by a member gives us, in my mind, sufficient reason to keep a close eye on how the broader practice of bundling develops in the future

Last week, Red Green and Blue assessed the green credentials of John McCain’s potential presidential running mate, Charlie Crist. As the Florida Governor signs a landmark multi-billion dollar deal to preserve the Everglades, we ask again, is it possible to love big oil and be green at the same time?

Earlier this month, Florida Governor Charlie Crist won a lot of friends in the oil industry by suggesting that he could live with oil-wells off the coast of Florida. In the same week he also gained support from environmentalists for brokering an agreement that will reclaim 300 square miles of the Everglades from sugar farming.

So why should we care? Well it just so happens that Crist is the Governor of a crucial swing-state in the upcoming presidential election, as well as being a contender for the Republican Vice-Presidential slot.

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Almost three years ago, Americans watched in horror as this country failed to provide adequate disaster relief resources during Hurricane Katrina. Currently, the scenario is being repeated in California, where an estimated 600 to 900 lightning sparked wildfires are burning. Many of these fires began last Friday afternoon (6/20/08); many of these fires remain unmanned. As someone personally surrounded by over 80 fires in a 10 mile radius of my home, I am pissed, frightened, anxious, and depressed.

On Saturday, I called 911 twice to report seven fires, six of which only appeared on a map yesterday! I called CalFire, the United States Forest Service (two ranger districts), the Humboldt County Sheriff Department, the Trinity County Sheriff Department, and our local volunteer fire department. I wanted to know what road I could take out of our valley if I needed to escape the firestorm. The response, “Ma’am, there are fires everywhere. We don’t know where they are or what roads are open.” I felt trapped, and we began putting dozer lines around our meadow, hooking up more sprinklers, and connecting fire hoses to the pump in our pond. Read the rest of this entry »

Robert Bryce, the managing editor of Energy Tribune is one of my favorite energy thinkers. He is a throwback journalist with an inquiring mind who asks hard questions and really thinks through the answers. He has recently written a book titled Gusher of Lies.

I have not yet had a chance to read the book, but I recently listened to a Tavis Smiley show interview with Robert where he talked a little about one of the topics discussed in the book – the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel.

This topic caught my interest as my energy obsessed brain began weaving several threads into a new pattern. One thread is the growing disconnect between the cost per unit energy of natural gas compared to diesel fuel in the United States. Another thread is a story that has been playing on my drive time radio station about the challenges that local school districts are facing as they prepare their student transportation budgets in the face of rapid increases in the cost of diesel fuel. The final thread is my continuing belief that new nuclear power plants have a role to play in alleviating our current energy crisis.
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California plan facing ‘NIABY’ foes (Not In Anyone’s Back Yard)

[UPDATE: I have added a list of the environmental groups that oppose Superlink below] A project being developed by San Diego Gas & Electric Co. and Stirling Energy is facing opposition from some environmentalists because the plan also calls for a 150-mile, high-voltage transmission line that would pass through 23 miles of Anza-Borrego Desert State Park, a spot known for its hiking trails, wildflowers, palm groves, cacti and spectacular mountain views.

The proposed Sunrise Powerlink would carry energy produced from several wind, solar, and geothermal installations from the California’s Imperial Valley to San Diego. The entire route would be about 150 miles long with 554 towers from end to end. (But with a cheery name like Sunrise Powerlink, how could anyone oppose it?)

While federal and state officials put the brakes on new coal-fired power plants and as investors back out of others, the demand for more renewable energy will only grow stronger. And as it turns out, the spots with the best renewable resources also have the harshest and often least habitable climates – dry, hot, windy, barren, etc. – so the electricity then needs to be transmitted to areas where people have settled (i.e. cities). And that is where some problems are surfacing. Read the rest of this entry »