Latest Zogby Poll Finds Statistical Dead-Heat Between Obama and McCain

zogby poll mccain leads obama with narrow marginA national Associated TV/Zogby International poll1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a barely distinguishable 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency. The difference between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but nonetheless indicates a notable turn-around for McCain.

The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had largely been viewed as a successful tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. A recent Gallup Poll showed that Obama had actually gotten a bump in the polls while overseas. But the trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive McCain campaign strategy that included a TV ad comparing the celebrity status of Barack Obama to that of Brittney Spears and Paris Hilton.

Pollster John Zogby said:

“The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama’s overseas trip have been trumped by McCain’s attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping.”

It is not always easy for me to make the link between environmental issues and electoral politics. However, it is clear this time around that the McCain/Republican party focus on drilling for more oil may, in fact, be gaining them some political favor in the eyes of the American voter. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups including young people, women, independents, and single voters.

So, do you think these early poll results really matter? Or more importantly, do you think that poll results themselves can have an impact on final voting outcomes?

1. This Zogby survey, commissioned by Associated TV, included 1,011 likely voters and was conducted July 31-Aug. 1, 2008. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. A more complete methodological treatment can be found here.

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About Timothy B. Hurst

Tim is the founder of ecopolitology and the executive editor at LiveOAK Media where he writes regularly about the politics of energy and the environment, green business and clean tech.

When not reading, writing, thinking or talking about environmental politics with anyone who will listen, Tim spends his time skiing in Colorado's high country, hiking with his dog, and getting dirty in his vegetable garden.

Comments

  1. JIm Jones says:

    I honestly cannot believe that there is anyone out there with an ounce of common sense taking McSame seriously. LOL

    JT
    http://www.Ultimate-Anonymity.com

  2. Concerned says:

    I suppose the final votes will come down to Florida. We all know how that went down with the Bush administration. Wake up McCain supporters don't you see the proxy government that the Bush Axis of evil are trying to force into presidency. Can you say puppet presidency?

  3. jeez says:

    hmmmm, seems all to familiar. Why is it the past 3 elections it's a "dead heat" between the two candidates. I guess it's easier to fake an election winner if everyone already is lead to believe they are even already.

  4. yo says:

    I honestly cannot believe that there is anyone out there with an ounce of common sense taking Obama seriously. LOL

  5. Falshrmjgr says:

    Boohoohoo the people are waking up to the fraud of the Obamessiah. What are the polls this week? Well better change my position. Campaign Contributions? *Flip* Drilling? *Flop* Who cares what America needs? Just tell em what they wanna hear….

  6. Tom says:

    I may not be a big McCain fan, but I'd rather have him than socialism. :)

  7. Lame says:

    All I can say is that this is all GOP-modified BS. If McCain gets any semblance of victory (Within 4% of Obama) it's because of foul play. The fact is that Most people are either voting Obama or not voting.

  8. Anna says:

    Actually, plenty of people are voting and they're not voting for Obama (fraud/traitor) or McCain (same old). Nader/Gonzalez and Ron Paul will receive their fair share of votes. Thankfully, there are other real choices out there.

  9. Larry says:

    The Obamatons are about to get a wakeup, I'd say. MCain is very bad at differentiating himself from liberals and anti-american types (sad to say, there is not a lot of difference). But even so, any effort to attack Obama on things factual yields results. If McCain stepped back and allowed his party and his people to run his campaign, he would drub Obama, Obama is the most "target-rich" environment we've seen running under a major party. But this is the same McCain who partners with Ted Kennedy and refers to Illegal Aliens as "God's children", we will see if he can manage to win despite himself.

  10. Richard says:

    Everyone says they hate seeing politicians resort to negative campaigning yet it always seems to work. Until Americans begin to see through the mud, politics will always be nasty.

  11. MeanJoeGreen says:

    Jeez,

    My sentiments EXACTLY!

  12. JLS says:

    These types of polls are a ruse. Applied by republicans no doubt to assume a close race.

  13. pinay sexy says:

    GO OBAMA!!! he will win

  14. Prince Charles says:

    The era of war and mudslings has gone.If truth should prevail America is simply retrograding in all ramification.This is a scientific age,just like Obama has said.He rightly observed that China,India not even Taiwan are seriously competing with American seriously.In the next five years if not less than that Asia will rule the would and America may change to reverse ghear if care is not taken.

    Since,the two parties are clamouring for change listen have your ears on the ground and filter the voice of that person crying in the widerness and know the Messiah that will take this country to the promise land.Think, and vote wisely.Don't be biased by the length of their tongues.

    Listen to that young man Obama he has made his points clear and not lengthy biography of Mc Cain.

    You may despise him even call him names,but i guess he should be the Moses of our time.

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