A US Blockade of Iran Would Cause an Energy Crisis
As Russia is focused on Georgia, and China is focused on the Olympics (two countries that might oppose further sanctions against Iran), the US is amassing its largest naval buildup in the Persian/Arabian Gulf since the 1991 Gulf War. This deployment comes on the heels of both House and Senate resolutions calling on the President to take action against Iran, which could only be accomplished through a naval blockade, an act of war under international law. Such a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would cause oil prices to skyrocket and cause an energy crisis greater than we are experiencing currently.
(3)demands that the President initiate an international effort to immediately and dramatically increase the economic, political, and diplomatic pressure on Iran to verifiably suspend its nuclear enrichment activities by, inter alia, prohibiting the export to Iran of all refined petroleum products; imposing stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran; and prohibiting the international movement of all Iranian officials not involved in negotiating the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program;
3) demands that the President lead an international effort to immediately and dramatically increase the pressure on the Government of Iran to verifiably suspend its nuclear enrichment activities by, among other measures, banning the importation of refined petroleum products to Iran;
Specifically, Benzene, a gasoline additive, is the target of a blockade. Iran has limited domestic oil refining capabilities, and it imports 40% of its Benzene, even though it is considered cheaper than water in Iran. If the US blocks Iranian imports of Benzene, you can expect Iran to retaliate.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a “chokepoint”, since one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this narrow body of water. Iran would respond to a US blockade with one of their own. Heritage.org explains why we should be concerned and predicted oil would increase an additional $85 a barrel if such an Iranian blockade occurred:
As global energy demand grows—especially among China, India, and other developing coun tries—competition for access to oil is escalating. The Persian Gulf is becoming the most important bottleneck, making freedom of navigation through the strait a vital American and global interest.
Debkafile warns the US will strike back to keep this vital strait open:
Iran, which imports 40 percent of its refined fuel products from Gulf neighbors, will retaliate for the embargo by shutting the Strait of Hormuz oil route chokepoint, in which case the US naval and air force stand ready to reopen the Strait and fight back any Iranian attempt to break through the blockade.
According to Stop War on Iran, the following naval forces are headed towards the Gulf to carry out such actions, if need be:
Carrier Strike Group Nine:
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) nuclear powered carrier with its Carrier Air Wing Two
Destroyer Squadron Nine:
USS Mobile Bay (CG53) guided missile cruiser
USS Russell (DDG59) guided missile destroyer
USS Momsen (DDG92) guided missile destroyer
USS Shoup (DDG86) guided missile destroyer
USS Ford (FFG54) guided missile frigate
USS Ingraham (FFG61) guided missile frigate
USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG60) guided missile frigate
USS Curts (FFG38) guided missile frigate
Plus one or more nuclear hunter-killer submarines
Peleliu Expeditionary Strike Group:
USS Peleliu (LHA-5) a Tarawa-class amphibious assault carrier
USS Pearl Harbor (LSD52) assult ship
USS Dubuque (LPD8) assult ship/landing dock
USS Cape St. George (CG71) guided missile cruiser
USS Halsey (DDG97) guided missile destroyer
USS Benfold (DDG65) guided missile destroyerCarrier Strike Group Two:
USS Theodore Roosevelt (DVN71) nuclear powered carrier with its Carrier Air Wing Eight
Destroyer Squadron 22:
USS Monterey (CG61) guided missile cruiser
USS Mason (DDG87) guided missile destroyer
USS Nitze (DDG94) guided missile destroyer
USS Sullivans (DDG68) guided missile destroyer
USS Springfield (SSN761) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine
IWO ESG ~ Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Iwo Jima (LHD7) amphibious assault carrier with its Amphibious Squadron Four
and with its 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit
USS San Antonio (LPD17) assault ship
USS Velia Gulf (CG72) guided missile cruiser
USS Ramage (DDG61) guided missile destroyer
USS Carter Hall (LSD50) assault ship
USS Roosevelt (DDG80) guided missile destroyer
USS Hartfore (SSN768) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarineCarrier Strike Group Seven:
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN76) nuclear powered carrier with its Carrier Air Wing 14
Destroyer Squadron 7:
USS Chancellorsville (CG62) guided missile cruiser
USS Howard (DDG83) guided missile destroyer
USS Gridley (DDG101) guided missile destroyer
USS Decatur (DDG73) guided missile destroyer
USS Thach (FFG43) guided missile frigate
USNS Rainier (T-AOE-7) fast combat support ship
Several of these warships recently participated in exercies in the Atlantic Ocean named Operation Brimstone.
A US blockade of Iran will not bring peace to the Middle East. Such military action will only escalate conflict, as well as skyrocket oil prices beyond the budget of most Americans. Even the fear of military action against Iran raised the price of oil earlier this summer, and some experts predict the passage of the House and Senate resolutions could have this affect even before a blockade was initiated. While we are still dependent upon foreign oil, we must carefully weigh these consequences. The time for real diplomacy is now, both for peace and our energy needs.
Image: NASA
It is very clear that you don’t understand or care that the very survival of Israel is on the line. You cannot continue pandering to the Iranians, because they’re simply utilizing your weakness and lack of action to make further progress in their pursuit of nuclear weapons. When faced with the prospect of massive military retaliation, most obstinate countries will reverse course….Libya being a fantastic example.
2 billion to die in a nuclear war thats alot of people thats like 200000 ppl a day for like 25 years straight
Are Bush and Cheney wacked-out enough to start another war, just so McCain looks like the man for the moment as November rolls around? I would not put it past those scumbags to kill US servicemen in order to win an election.
If I may put David Anderson’s analogy in really stark terms:
Trying to solve the energy crisis with cheaper oil is like trying to solve a crack addict’s problems with cheaper crack.
The most fearsom re-action by Iran will probably be the release of Bio aand chemical WMD’s in the USA etc.The Iranians paid huge salaries to Rusian scientists,unemployed by the meltdown of the Soviet Union,to develope a vast range of new world Bio weapone.One vial with a few drops would kill thousands,and there are no cures.There are fanatical Iranians in every country in the western world just waiting for the order to release.Just Google Iran bio warfare. Good Luck.
The problem is we need to become an exporter. The US gets very little of it’s oil from the middle east. Europe is the big consumer of middle east oil but it’s a global economy.
The price of a barrel of crude is set by investors on a daily basis. OPEC and such flame the increase in the price of a of barrel of oil by restricting production and increasing demand, also aggrevated by world events such as war, severe weather problems, etc.
Take out or control the demand part of the equation and the price of oil stabalizes (globaly) because investors are not willing to pay alot for futures on a product that demand will probably not increase on. The price stays down (except for the huge taxes on each gallon).
Start drilling and exporting without playing games and the daily oil scare goes into low gear.
The scary thing about the Straights and all of the other activities going on right now (that is not being covered in the main stream media for some reason) is it is not about oil but in my uneducated and feable opinion a chance for a real world war.
What if Russia or China wants to escort their commercial vessels through the blockade to Iran. Read the Debka Files articles over the past few weeks (because it’s an easy place to get most the information in one spot) and you’ll see it’s all about power, economics and border security and there are a lot of players to blame. The US is making dangerous moves as well as the Russians, Iranians, Israel, Syria, Poland, Georgia, Ukraine, etc.
Well worth watching unfold, but you won’t find all the back ground noise through the main stream media. Maybe they’re in denial.
Russia has now sent a carrier group to Syria and are in talks with them about setting up nuke weapons there along with missile defense systems in Iran. Not about oil but in retaliation for missile defense system being put into Poland by the US. The Russians now control the Black Sea and the US the Mediterranean. Cold War tactics coming back fast.
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Reports of impending Iran blockade are false, US Dept. of Defense tells Post
The url is long but you can read part of it if you copy and paste it into your browser window.
http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/jpost/access/1534152541.html?dids=1534152541:1534152541&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Aug+14%2C+2008&author=YAAKOV+LAPPIN&pub=Jerusalem+Post&edition=&startpage=2&desc=Reports+of+impending+Iran+blockade+are+false%2C+US+Dept.+of+Defense+tells+Post
Here is how it reads:
–Also reported heading toward Iran is another nuclear- powered carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven; the USS Iwo Jima [amphibious assault ship], the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and a number of French warships, including the nuclear hunter- killer submarine Amethyste,” the Middle East Times reported. The force will join two other American naval battle groups in the Gulf, the report added.–
You have to pay to read the rest of the article.
Drilling for local US oil will take several years and a further several years until it is available to the US consumer; it should be implemented as a matter of urgency together with other forms of energy.
However, in the meantime Iran is continuing nuclear enrichment development. If America does not stop Iran fairly immediately, it is a realistic possibility that Iran will become the number one world superpower, by virtue of it intimidating, and thereby controlling in this manner other oil producing states in the Middle East.