Red, Green, and Blue

One of the more important things to understand about Georgia - the small country that recently engaged in a deadly struggle with Russia - is that it is one of the hosts of a relatively new, 1 million barrel per day capacity oil pipeline called Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC). That pipeline was constructed with the active encouragement of the EU and the US starting in the late 1990s despite strenuous objections from Russia.

If you take a look at a map of the pipeline, you will begin to understand the geopolitical importance of the effort to provide a path out of the Caspian Sea region - home to a large oil and gas reservoir - that does not pass through Iran or Russia. Until the BTC was completed, there was no way to move Azeri oil out to the rest of the market without going through Russia.

(Aside: The map indicates that a path through Armenia could have been chosen instead of through Georgia, but apparently Armenia and Azerbaijan have a long-standing conflict over a region known as Mountainous Kharabakh.)

Unfortunately, western leaders underestimated the strength of Russia’s objection to losing control over Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources. They also underestimated Russia’s ability to do something about its desire to reassert control. By biding its time and working in the way of the excellent chess players that they are, Russia has put itself in a position to control (stop?) the flow and there are few acceptable actions that can be taken to change the situation.

One of the few things that has a long term chance of success is a focused program of reducing the importance of oil and gas in the world economy.

My input on that front is to steadily increase the use of uranium and thorium fuels whose supply cannot be severed by an aggressor sitting astride a key delivery path. When electricity and ship propulsion is powered by heavy metal fission instead of natural gas or oil, the importance of owning the valves that supply heat and power gradually dims to insignificance.

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