14 Century-Old Environmental Predictions: Where Are They Now?
7. Prediction: “No Foods will be Exposed. Storekeepers who expose food to air breathed out by patrons or to the atmosphere of the busy streets will be arrested with those who sell stale or adulterated produce. Liquid-air refrigerators will keep great quantities of food fresh for long intervals.”
What happened: Refrigeration along all points of the food distribution chain is now ubiquitous in the U.S. Ironically, however, many foods that are refrigerated are still exposed to open air as they are displayed in your grocer’s food-case. While not an unhealthy practice, per se, because the foods are largely over-wrapped in layers of virtually impenetrable plastic, saying it is energy inefficient would be an understatement.
8. Prediction: “Coal will not be used for heating or cooking. It will be scarce, but not entirely exhausted. The earth’s hard coal will last until the year 2050 or 2100; its soft-coal mines until 2200 or 2300. Meanwhile both kinds of coal will have become more and more expensive. Man will have found electricity manufactured by waterpower to be much cheaper. Every river or creek with any suitable fall will be equipped with water-motors, turning dynamos, making electricity. Along the seacoast will be numerous reservoirs continually filled by waves and tides washing in. Out of these the water will be constantly falling over revolving wheels. All of our restless waters, fresh and salt, will thus be harnessed to do the work which Niagara is doing today: making electricity for heat, light and fuel.”
What happened: Coal is (by and large) not directly used for heating and cooking any more in the U.S. Indirectly, however, coal is still used for heating and cooking in about half of the nation’s homes via the electric grid. As part of the total energy mix, coal provides about 22% of our energy needs, but that includes transportation fuels as well. In terms of the U.S. electricity mix, coal provides about half of the country’s capacity, though that number reaches as high as three quarters in some areas.
9. Prediction: “Vegetables Grown by Electricity. Winter will be turned into summer and night into day by the 
farmer. In cold weather he will place heat-conducting electric wires under the soil of his garden and thus warm his growing plants. He will also grow large gardens under glass. At night his vegetables will be bathed in powerful electric light, serving, like sunlight, to hasten their growth. Electric currents applied to the soil will make valuable plants grow larger and faster, and will kill troublesome weeds. Rays of colored light will hasten the growth of many plants. Electricity applied to garden seeds will make them sprout and develop unusually early.”
What happened: Growing plants indoors under electric lights has become commonplace in the United States and elsewhere. But exactly what is being grown under lights may not have been what Watkins had in mind.
10. Prediction: “Strawberries as large as apples will be eaten by our great great grandchildren for their Christmas dinners a hundred years hence. Raspberries and blackberries will be as large. One will suffice for the fruit course of each person. Strawberries and cranberries will be grown upon tall bushes. Cranberries, gooseberries and currants will be as large as oranges. One cantaloupe will supply an entire family. Melons, cherries, grapes, plums, apples, pears, peaches and all berries will be seedless. Figs will be cultivated over the entire United States.”
What happened: There is no question that fruits and vegetables are bigger than they used to be. One trip into the modern supermarket one will see not only huge strawberries, but also enormous apples, giant bananas, and so on. But what we have gained in size, we have lost in taste, as the larger fruits and vegetables are bred for commercial success and to survive long journeys from farm to table. Continued…
Brilliant post Tim – Watkins was both eerily accurate and amazingly optimistic. I wonder what he’d have made of the mess we’ve created in some areas of ‘progress’?
“Coal is not directly used for heating and cooking any more in the U.S.” Wrong. I know of plenty of people in Western Maryland and the surrounding coal mining areas who have coal-burning furnaces in their homes. It’s messy, but it’s still in use.
I partially agree to the wars shortening the population census, but do not leave out the thousands of babies that would have been born had they not been aborted!
Glenn- Thanks for your insight. And Karen, you make a valid argument.
We’re right about in the middle of that 350 to 500 million population prediction for the US and its possessions, once you remember that in 1900 the Philippines were a US possession. Add Puerto Rico’s 4 million and the Philippines’ 80 million to our 305 million, plus the scattered small possessions like Guam, and you’re pushing 400 million.
14) Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished.
Most large cities like New York, Chicago, and even Detroit have municipal systems, usually controlled by the power companies that deliver hot steam that is used to heat the boilers of larger buildings. The steam (in Detroit at least) is mostly surplus from power plants and the incinerator, and in some cases produced by small facilities specifically for heating.
Tim,
Care to make some predictions for the next 100 years?
Ooh, I was waiting for someone to ask me that. Sounds like fodder for a New Year’s post. I have a few things in mind, but I haven’t really worked through them yet.
I have tertiary syphilis.
Boy we sure have come a long way?