Without much of a fanfare, the British government has launched an enquiry that aims to secure the future of UK food until 2050. It’s a committee process, led by Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and it will explore how well equipped Britain is to contribute to feeding a global population of 9 billion in forty years.
I could tell them the answer now. Not very well equipped at all.
The UK has one small advantage – its population will not increase at the same rate as that of some other countries. However, in the UK some farmers, particularly hill farmers, are going out of business at a rate not seen since the end of World War One, when there simply weren’t enough men left alive to work the remote rural farmlands. The answer then was simple – import labour to increase food supplies. That isn’t the answer now.
Fortunately, the government seems to be aware that understanding is one thing, and acting is another, so the second part of the enquiry’s activity is to decide what government, the food industry, farmers, growers and fishermen need to do to solve the problem. And it isn’t the UK’s problem alone: in 2007, Mexico saw food riots as the price of tortillas and flour rose beyond the means of the lowest-paid members of the population.
Self-sufficiency isn’t the answer
One solution is already in hand. London’s Food Czar, Rosie Boycott, wants to find 2,012 derelict or unused pieces of land to convert to allotments or vegetable gardens in time for the London Olympics in 2012.
But there isn’t enough space in the UK for more than a tiny proportion of the population to be self-sufficient in vegetables and cereals, even if that were enough to keep them healthy. Long working hours prevent many using such facilities, and there’s a significant proportion of the population that can’t live on a vegetarian diet, nor grow its own food because of health or time constraints, or for cultural reasons.
In 2006 Margaret Becket, the then Defra Minister said ‘ …food security is [not] synonymous with self-sufficiency… It is freer trade in agriculture which is key to ensuring security of supply in an integrating world. It allows producers to respond to global supply and demand signals, and enables countries to source food from the global market in the event of climatic disaster or animal disease in a particular part of the world. … trade liberalisation …will bring the prosperity and economic interdependency that underpins genuine long term global security.’
Melamine in milk, dioxins in pork
Well, yes and no. When Chinese milk turns up with toxic melamine and Irish pork has worrying (but apparently safe to eat) levels of dioxin, how much do we want to rely on a global supply chain that doesn’t adhere to the highest safety standards at the other end of the chain?
The National Farmers’ Union is happy about the enquiry, saying that ‘Productive agriculture must share the stage with the environment if the UK is to secure food production’. The NFU worries about continued under-investment in agri-science research, the diminishing labour market and a growing skills gap which could stop the farming sector’s growth.
What limits food production?
In 2008, many soft fruit producers couldn’t get enough pickers to harvest strawberry crops, which rotted in the fields. For 2009 the migrant worker quota from Eastern Europe has been raised, but even so, there are concerns that many pickers will find other work which is both better paid and less physically demanding. And of course, there are always African strawberries to be imported: as long as you don’t mind the food-miles, intensive production methods, mono-culture and the often primitive working conditions offered to African pickers, who don’t have much choice about where they work.
Global food scarcity needs global answers
The UK doesn’t allow genetically modified crops to be grown, except in constrained scientific trials. America does. India relies on the development of GM crops while many African farmers are deeply suspicious of the GM seed companies and their intentions. Wherever we start from and however we view food, we’re all in this together.
In the end, only a global answer to food scarcity will work and only taking into account the global fears, opportunities and current positions will allow us to ensure food security for all.
Will eat photograph courtesy of altemark at Flickr under a Creative Commons Licence
The issue of a plentiful, and safe, food supply is critical. As the world's population swells there is a greater need for food and less land to grow it on. And while the long term effects of climate change are still unknown, what is certain is that there will be major disruptions in the food chain.
We've already had a taste of resource wars (Iraq) and food riots (Mexico) – multiply that times a thousand and we'll have a major problem on our hands – and that doesn't account for the effects of toxins in our food.
Hopefully the United States is considering a similar program.
Thanks GP, I'd like to think that President Elect Obama has this issue right in the centre of his desk!