There were two main reasons why we started calling Global Warming by the euphemism “Climate Change”. One was that the Bush (Senior) administration’s team at the UN Climate Talks in the run-up to Kyoto didn’t like to use such frightening terms. The other is that plain and simple “warming” doesn’t quite cover it.
Yes, average global temperatures are rising steadily, as we all know – there is no scientific disagreement about that. But what is going on underneath the obvious is that there is a lot more energy in the climate system. That means that the weather is wilder and more unpredictable than before – and getting more so every year. It was a good decade or more ago that the IPCC warned us that one result of climate change was that extreme weather events would become as likely as smaller ones. More energy means more instability and unpredictability.
>>See also: What to Learn from Bad Weather
The strength of hurricanes, the length of droughts, the temperature of heatwaves, the frequency of floods: these are all going up. The insurance business noticed it first (of more or less any industry), and they were warning us at the UNFCCC meetings from early on (along with AOSIS members concerned about sea-level rise). But what is less well-recognised is that it is just as likely that we’ll have extreme blizzard or low temperatures because of changing weather patterns due to climate change.
You get a little, local cold snap (which is what we are getting here in the UK as cold winds blow across from Siberia – unusually, as most of our weather comes from the West) and up pop all these people claiming that there’s no such thing as global warming. Don’t you believe it! We are unlikely to see any more “Frost Fairs” on the Thames any time soon.
The last Frost Fair was held on the Thames nearly 200 years ago, in February 1814, and lasted four days. It wasn’t just the milder climate that put an end to the so-called “little ice age” that lasted from the mid-14th to the 19th centuries; it was also due to the fact that the new London Bridge provided much less of an obstacle to the water flow – this and the progressive building of embankments during the 19th century increased the speed of the water so that icing up was a great deal less likely.
Instead of expecting frost fairs, you might well want to enjoy the snow. We will see less and less of it over the coming years.
Image: The Frozen Thames, 1677. Wikimedia.
"Yes, average global temperatures are rising steadily, as we all know – there is no scientific disagreement about that."
Um…. perhaps you should re-check your sources and look at the last 12 years of temps… Science's job is to question everything, but when you back this global warming stuff with the strength of a religious nut-job ignoring the "little cold snap" of the last decade… your credability goes out the window.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/19/january-200…
So warm weather is caused by warming….and now cold weather is evidence of warming……?
Sophistry!
Thanks for the comment. Climate is not a small, simple thing, obviously, it's a very very complex global system. As a result there are plenty of opportunities for spinning detailed findings one way or another. Here's an article you might like to look at, that I used in my research for the piece:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/200…
An extract: "This puts 2008 at #9 (or #8) in the yearly rankings, but given the uncertainty in the estimates, the real ranking could be anywhere between #6 or #15. More robustly, the most recent 5-year averages are all significantly higher than any in the last century. The last decade is by far the warmest decade globally in the record."
Look to the sun. Look at the solar markers (lack of sunspots), the reduced solar winds and increased earth incident cosmic radiation.
The scare tactics are not a service to mankind. We need to focus NASA and NOAA on more realistic predictions to serve the economy.
What if they are wrong and it is cooling? Are we prepared for the energy and food shortages? Are we prepared for the increased illness associated with cold spells?
Richard,
Was 2008 really #9 or #8 warmest? How far back do these rankings go? There used to be glaciers over us here in Dayton, OH, but there aren't anymore. I'm guessing that was caused by warming as well, but since the Industrial Revolution hadn't happened yet, there was no rise in CO2, how to explain?
"Yes, average global temperatures are rising steadily, as we all know – there is no scientific disagreement about that." I find it interesting that you are basing your whole theory of a global weather upheaval upon temperature data that was collected in who knows how many ways and inconsistently in the U.S. and Europe at best. Can you tell me how accurate thermometers were 100 years ago compared to now?
Second, you fail to consider the cycles of high and low temperatures. You'd think that at the beginning of the biggest explosion in industrialization that the world has ever seen following World War II that you'd see a spike in temperatures. The facts are that the temperatures decreased for twenty years after World War II to the point that scientists in the 70's were talking about covering the polar ice caps with black soot prevent the coming ice age.
I just found out that the mass of our solar system is half of what the scientists previously thought. Science is ongoing and changing. To change financial policies and laws to save the world from a coming global catastrophe when the science is sketchy at best is irresponsible. You are chicken little and unfortunately we have Hollywood, the media and lieing politicians carrying this B.S. forward to all the westernized nations with as much hype as possible.
When the people of the united states look at the threat of global warming as one of the last things for our president to focus on it should tell you that all your B.S. isn't taking hold and will come back to bite you.
Anybody want to have a tire burning party? My house at eight.
Thanks to everyone for the comments, even though most of you don't agree with me. That's why we have a comment section here so you can do exactly that. If nobody criticised but just nodded their heads we wouldn't learn anything…
Global Warming is just another religion that will cause wars.
Is this a joke? Just starting off, its already been proven that Hurricanes don't increase in number or severity in several places… in fact, heres the resignation of a member of IPCC attesting to that fact:
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeD…
Add to that this ridiculous logic of "If it warms, its global warming, if it cools, its global warming". How is anybody supposed to take that seriously? You're saying that you're proven right, if the earth doesn't stay a static environment, which has never occurred in history? And you expect people to believe that? I would absolutely love to hear a response to how we can disprove global warming with this moronic standard from you? What evidence would it take to show the global warming isn't true? Is there any? I doubt it, but then you weren't really concerned with facts in the first place, where you?
"Yes, average global temperatures are rising steadily, as we all know – there is no scientific disagreement about that."
Of course, there is disagreement about it. That's science.
Well Richard. You have done a good job hitting the talking points important in every pro G-W article. It's Bush's fault more people don't agree with you (Not enough fear mongering). Vague, official sounding, comments that "we all know temps are rising." Weather is getting WILDER than ever before. Hush.
More energy is in the system. More Energy? Are you serious? Where is this energy coming from Richard? The sun right? The sun is the only source of energy. All forms of energy on our planet are by product of energy from the Sun.
More vague comments that have nothing to reality, just more fear mongering. Can you name a drought anywhere in the world that has been "typical"? Hurricane season since the year of Katrina has been less than dramatic. Please tell me where you get this crystal ball of yours. How can you state that snow will fall less frequently? The harder you try to sell this fallacy the more people will "Pop" out to negate your fear based theories.
So if the cooling is now caused by global warming, then if we reduce CO2 emissions then it will actually stop the cooling…and start to get warmer – which is what got you all upset in the first place! So now we actually have to INCREASE CO2 emissions to stop global warming!!! WE NEED A STIMULUS PACKAGE TO BUILD NEW COAL PLANTS IN EVERY STATE!!! HURRY!!!
…and btw, the science is already settled on my previous statement and I have a a complete consensus on this so DON'T YOU DARE QUESTION ME YOU FLAT-EARTH DENIER RUSH LIMBAUGH SEAN HANNITY RIGHT-WING GEORGE BUSH EXXON DICK CHENEY REPUBLICAN – OR I WILL HAVE ANY CREDENTIALS YOU HOLD REVOKED AND YOU WILL BE FOREVER BANNED FROM WHATEVER PROFESSION YOU USED TO MAKE YOUR LIVING AT…and your little dog too~!
could you explain how global warming explains all time recorded low temperatures in Maine and Illinois in the US this winter? Or why the Great lakes are close to freezing solid for the first time in 30 years. Or why Arctic ice extent is on the rise compared to the last five years? Since the PDO just shifted to negative in the past year, isn't it possible that the warming trend you cite is now coming to its natural end? Isn't it possible that there are regular temperature cycles unrelated to human activity? Isn't it just possible?
A local cold snap? We're having a record cold winter in Florida. I wouldn't exactly call you a neighbor.
Thinking people figured this out a long time ago. Any thinking person who considers the facts, along with the current state of politics (and money)around this subject, comes to the same conclusion. The Man-Made Climate Change Religion is a hoax. And the messiah, AlGore, is a false god.
30,000 respected scientists. 9000 PhD's. All telling us – IT'S A SCAM PEOPLE! WAKE UP!
Yet lemmings like Mr. Elan continue to publish drivel like "Yes, average global temperatures are rising steadily, as we all know – there is no scientific disagreement about that."
Sad and dangerous times, friends.
A Thinker
You are absolutely right, A. Thinker. It's a scam that will enrich the scammers (Gore and Obama's friends), increase the power of the corrupt UN and megalomaniacs like Obama, limit development, and multiply poverty for most of us. More than 31,000 American scientists have signed onto a petition that states, “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate…” http://www.petitionproject.org/index.html
This is from the UK Telegraph. It destroys the idea that there is more climate change. This line was to prove global warming as it is absolutely freezing in the UK.
A study by the Met Office which went back 350 years shows that such extreme weather now only occurs every 20 years.
Back in the pre-industrial days of Charles Dickens, it was a much more regular occurrence – hitting the country on average every five years or so.
So its colder and there are fewer extreme weather events, fewer hurricanes…and what are we supposed to be worried about?
Doublespeak anyone.
Can you seriously look in a mirror Dick and say the planet is warming, so expect cold weather. Just step back, get out of the confusion, and think about it. Really.
That like saying, we will get out of a recession by spending more money, money we don't have, and money in the future people will need to make, the exact reason we got there. Hmmmm. Oh yeah, that taxing companies doesn't affect the economy because of this B.S. warming.
Stop smoking…