Election 2012: More Democrats in the House, but not enough.

  • Published on November 7th, 2012

changes in congressHow did we do in the House? It’ll be a while before we get the full answer. But here’s a rundown of a few key races. The GOP picked off 11 Democratic districts so far, while the Dems picked off 22, for a net gain of 11 so far (some districts remain un-called). The GOP will maintain control with at least 230 seats, which will likely make things complicated for President Obama. The latest estimate has the GOP with 232 and the Democrats with 187, with the rest still up for grabs. Some of these races were incredibly close.

  • In CA-09, it looks like Ami Bera has finally knocked off deep conservative Dan Lungren – by 200 votes.
  • Mike McIntyre held on to NC-07 by less than 400 votes.
  • Patrick Murphy picked off gadly/loon Allen West by 1400 votes.
  • In New York’s Hudson Valley, Nan Hayworth got knocked off by Dem Sean Maloney by just over 8,000 votes.

The right-leaning Blue Dog Democratic caucus continues the process of decimation that saw it lose more than half its members in 2010

  • Ben Chandler lost in Kentucky, as did Leonard Boswell in Iowa
  • Larry Kissell lost in North Carolina, as did Heath Shuler’s chief of staff, who lost heavily trying to succeed his retiring boss.
  • But Dem Jim Matheson held on, despite expectations, in deep red Utah.
  • And Blue Dog Coalition chair John Barrow of Georgia managed to hold on to remain the only white male Democrat elected to Congress from the deep South.

And some great new reps will be coming to Washington, including

  • Tammy Duckworth, an Army vet who lost both her legs in Iraq, who beat deadbeat dad Joe Walsh.
  • Joseph P. Kennedy III, grandson of Bobby Kennedy, will take over the MA seat vacated by the retiring Barney Frank.
Here’s our rundown of the tightest races. “Tossup/lean/etc” indicates a consensus of where the seat stood going into the election; bold indicates the winner, * indicates party holding the seat going in.
AZ-01 Tossup *Kirkpatrick  Paton Dem Hold
AZ-02 Lean D *Barber McSally  GOP gain
AZ-09 Tossup Sinema *Parker  Dem Gain
CA-03 Likely D *Garamendi Vann Dem Hold
CA-07 Tossup Bera *Lungren  Dem Gain
CA-09 Lean D *McNerney Gill  Dem Hold
CA-10 Tossup Hernandez *Denham  GOP Hold
CA-16 Likely D *Costa Whelan  Dem Hold
CA-21 Likely R Hernandez *Valadao GOP Gain
CA-24 Lean D *Capps Maldonado
Dem Hold
CA-26 Tossup Brownley Strickland  Dem Gain
CA-33 Likely D *Waxman Bloomfield  (too close)
CA-36 Tossup Ruiz *Bono Mack  (too close)
CA-41 Tossup Takano Tavaglione  Dem Gain
CA-47 Lean D Lowenthal DeLong  Dem Gain
CA-52 Tossup Peters Bilbray  (too close)
CO-03 Lean R Pace Tipton GOP Hold
CO-06 Lean R Miklosi
*Coffman
 GOP Hold
CO-07 Lean D *Perlmutter Coors Dem Hold
Race Rating (D) (R) Winner Outcome
CT-05 Tossup *Esty Roraback Dem Hold
FL-02 Lean R Lawson *Southerland GOP Hold
FL-09 Likely D Grayson *Long Dem Gain
FL-10 Lean R Demings *Webster GOP Hold
FL-16 Likely R Fitzgerald *Buchanan GOP Hold
FL-18 Tossup Murphy *West Dem Gain
FL-22 Lean D Frankel *Hasner Dem Gain
FL-26 Lean D Garcia Rivera Dem Gain
GA-12 Tossup *Barrow Anderson Dem Hold
IA-01 Lean D *Braley Lange Dem Hold
IA-02 Lean D *Loebsack Archer Dem Hold
IA-03 Tossup *Boswell Latham GOP Gain
IA-04 Lean R Vilsack *King
GOP Hold
IL-08 Lean D Duckworth *Walsh Dem Gain
IL-10 Tossup Schneider *Dold Dem Gain
IL-11 Tossup Foster *Biggert Dem Gain
IL-12 Tossup Enyart Plummer
Dem Hold
IL-13 Tossup Gill Davis
GOP Hold
IL-17 Tossup Bustos *Schilling Dem Gain
Race Rating (D) (R) Winner Outcome
IN-02 Likely R *Mullen Walorski GOP Gain
IN-08 Lean R Crooks *Bucshon
GOP Hold
KY-06 Tossup *Chandler Barr Barr GOP Gain
MA-06 Lean R *Tierney Tisei
Dem Hold
MD-06 Likely D Delaney *Bartlett Dem Gain
MI-01 Tossup McDowell *Benishek GOP Hold
MI-03 Likely R Pestka *Amash GOP Hold
MI-11 Lean R Taj *Bentivolio GOP Hold
MN-02 Likely R Obermueller *Kline
GOP Hold
MN-06 Likely R Graves *Bachmann  GOP Hold
MN-08 Tossup Nolan *Cravaack Dem Gain
MT-AL Likely R Gillan *Daines  (too close)
NC-07 Tossup *McIntyre Rouzer  Dem Hold
NC-08 Lean R *Kissell Hudson GOP Gain
NC-11 Likely R *Rogers Meadows GOP Gain
ND-AL Likely R Gulleson *Cramer
GOP Hold
NE-02 Likely R Ewing *Terry
GOP Hold
NH-01 Tossup Shea-Porter *Guinta Dem Gain
NH-02 Tossup Kuster *Bass Dem Gain
Race Rating (D) (R) Winner Outcome
NJ-03 Likely R Adler *Runyan
GOP Hold
NM-01 Likely D *Lujan Grisham Arnold-Jones
Dem Hold
NV-03 Lean R Oceguera *Heck
GOP Hold
NV-04 Tossup Horsford *Tarkanian Dem Gain
NY-01 Lean D *Bishop Altschuler
Dem Hold
NY-11 Likely R Murphy *Grimm
GOP Hold
NY-18 Lean R Maloney *Hayworth Dem Gain
NY-19 Lean R Schreibman *Gibson
GOP Hold
NY-21 Tossup *Owens Doheny
Dem Hold
NY-24 Lean D Maffei *Buerkle Dem Gain
NY-25 Lean D *Slaughter Brooks Dem Hold
NY-27 Lean R *Hochul Collins GOP Gain
OH-06 Lean R Wilson *Johnson GOP Hold
OH-16 Tossup *Sutton Renacci GOP Gain
OK-02 Likely R *Wallace Mullin GOP Gain
PA-06 Likely R Trivedi *Gerlach
GOP Hold
PA-08 Likely R Boockvar *Fitzpatrick
GOP Hold
PA-12 Tossup *Critz Rothfus GOP Gain
RI-01 Tossup *Cicilline Doherty
Dem Hold
Race Rating (D) (R) Winner
SD-AL Likely R Varilek *Noem GOP Hold
TN-04 Likely R Stewart *DesJarlais GOP Hold
TX-14 Lean R Lampson *Weber GOP Hold
TX-23 Tossup Gallego *Canseco Gallego Dem Gain
UT-04 Lean R *Matheson Love Dem Hold
VA-02 Likely R Hirschbiel *Rigell GOP Hold
WA-01 Lean D *DelBene Koster Dem Hold
WA-10 Likely D Heck *Muri Heck Dem Gain
WI-07 Lean R Kreitlow *Duffy GOP Hold
WI-08 Likely R Wall *Ribble GOP Hold
WV-03 Likely D *Rahall Snuffer
Dem Hold

(Image by Sarah Price via Flickr)

About the Author

Jeremy Bloom is the Editor of RedGreenAndBlue. He lives in New York, where he combines his passion for the environment with his passion for film, and is working on making the world a better place.