We shattered a CO2 record last month. Here’s how we can build a Green New Deal.
It’s impossible to talk about infrastructure without talking about the Green New Deal. For the purpose of these diaries, we will refer to the version(1) of the Green New Deal put out by Rep. Ocasio-Cortez in H.Res. 109. This bill calls for the United States to convert to 100% renewable energy within 10 years through a massive mobilization on the order of World War II and the Apollo Program combined. So what would it take to do that? Is that even possible? And what would happen if we achieve it?
As you can see from the above energy flow diagram from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory , the present breakdown of energy by source isn’t that promising. Add up all the renewable sources, and that still only gets us to 11%.
But We Can Do This (Right?)
As I wrote in a diary on California already building High Speed Rail, something amazing happened in the United States the middle of last decade. It was not just that humanity finally figured out what to do about solving the problem of greenhouse gasses resulting from power generation (i.e., wind + solar). The United States was already doing it.
So, let’s build the remaining 86.7 quads of wind and solar generating capacity!
Is there enough room to build enough solar power? Yes, one study says we need 21,250 square miles of solar panels.
Is there enough room to build enough wind power? Also yes. It turns out it would take 3,995,434 more turbines to power the United States. Spaced relatively close together, as on a wind farm, these would take up about half the size of Alaska.
But interspersed amidst communities, in backyards and on rooftops, plus going offshore, the footprint would go way down.
A recent study found that about 75% wind and 25% solar would be about what would be best to replace fossil fuels based on geography, solar incidence, and wind data. So the United States would need 5,500 mi2 of solar panels, and about 3,000,000 more wind turbines(4).
With some important caveats(5), which we will all summarily dismiss for this diary, this isn’t out of the realm of what is possible.
Ready to Flip the Switch
So we wave our magic wand, and build the 5,500 mi2 of solar panels, and about 3,000,000 more wind turbines, all by 2030, and connect them to the electrical grid(7). President Ocasio-Cortez(8) is there to flip the switch, and…
Like I said, it’s all very Sisyphean. But there’s the same problem with all these physical energy storage means: They don’t respond quickly to changes in demand. Thankfully…
There is… Another…
But what if we could have an energy storage means that:
- Has all the benefits of fossil fuel combustion, but with none of the environmental costs of having to burn a fossil fuel?
- Has all the benefits of electrochemical battery storage, but with none of the problems associated with rare earth minerals?
Well, there is. And it uses the most abundant element in the Universe: Water.
There are more fascinating uses of hydrogen for a green economy than can be contained in just one diary(11). I’ll let David Roberts give an excellent summary:
It is an odd twist of chemistry that there is fuel embedded in the most common substance on earth: water.
Hydrogen — the H of H2O fame — turns out to be something of an all-purpose element, a Swiss Army knife for energy. It can be produced without greenhouse gases. It is highly flammable, so it can be used as a combustion fuel. It can be fed into a fuel cell to produce electricity directly, without combustion, through an electrochemical process.
It can be stored and distributed as a gas or a liquid. It can be combined with CO2 (and/or nitrogen and other gases) to create other useful fuels like methane or ammonia. It can be used as a chemical input in a range of industrial processes, helping to make fertilizers, plastics, or pharmaceuticals.
It is quite handy.
Most hydrogen is presently manufactured by steam reforming of natural gas. This basically involves blasting natural gas with high temperature steam to prise loose hydrogen. This obviously can’t be used in a Green New Deal. But as David Roberts already notes, there is all the hydrogen we would ever need on Earth, in the form of water. And all you need to do to get that hydrogen is apply electricity.
The reaction for the electrolysis of water is:
2H2O(l) +Energy → 2H2(g) + O2(g)
That hydrogen can then turned around and be burned in a turbine to generate electricity:
2H2(g) + O2(g) → 2H2O(l) +Energy
Why doesn’t burning this hydrogen cause global warming? Because we’re not adding anything to the atmosphere(10). Contrast this with fossil fuels, where we are taking carbon that has been sequestered since the carboniferous period underground and putting it back in the atmosphere today. With hydrogen fuel, we’ve taken water, broken it apart, combusted it, and reformed water. There’s nothing added, nothing gained.
So why aren’t we already doing this? Well, it’s hard.
The hydrogen in water doesn’t really want to let go of the oxygen (they are “strongly bonded”), so cracking them apart takes quite a bit of energy. The resulting hydrogen has to be stored, either by compressing it as a gas with big pumps or by (weakly) bonding it to something else and storing it as a liquid. That gas or liquid will require a distribution infrastructure. Finally, the hydrogen has to be extracted from storage and converted back to energy, either by burning it or putting it through a fuel cell.
By that time, the amount of energy invested in the process exceeds what can be gotten back out by a wide margin.
But there have been recent developments making hydrogen easier to extract and store.
The Appeal of Hydrogen
So where do our fossil fuel plants come in? We already have an electric grid designed around relatively few, large power plants being sources of high voltage electricity, which is generation there and then distributed. The cost to replace the US electrical grid would be about $5 Trillion. Why make the Green New Deal any harder than it already will be?
And our power stations have already been built and permitted(12). They are typically occupying land away from developed areas, are almost always near water sources, and if they run on liquefied natural gas (LNG), they already have high pressure bulk storage on site.
LNG is already used to generate the plurality of electricity in the United States. What if a LNG power plant could be converted to burn hydrogen instead? It can! And Mitsubishi is presently converting a power station in the Netherlands to do just that.
You can see the appeal, as all that’s needed is adding the means to generate and store the hydrogen. All the electricity and other equipment is already there. It is actually very difficult to burn hydrogen in a turbine, which is why it’s taken this long to get to this point. But progress has been made.
We Can Do This
The hydrogen economy has seen many periods of promise, only for economics to dash our hopes. But the Green New Deal, and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, have changed everything by bringing the Green New Deal back into the spotlight. And energy storage must be a part of any Green New Deal. It doesn’t just answer the Republican talking point of what happens at night when or when the wind doesn’t blow. It answers how we can build a Green New Deal without the trillions in modifications to our existing infrastructure.
(1) Many may be surprised to learn that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez did not invent the Green New Deal. Nor did her staffers. This isn’t a criticism of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, whom I strongly support here in New York(2). The credit actually goes to a rather surprising source: Runner Up for “New York Times Worst Columnist of the Year” for the 18th Year Running: Thomas Friedman. He actually conceived the idea 12 years (24 Friedman Units) ago, maybe while having a conversation in the back of a taxi. Because infrastructure discussions elsewhere may invoke different historic versions of the Green New Deal, I want to be clear which version we will be using here, which is the Rep. Ocasio-Cortez version that focuses primarily on achieving the IPCC goal of holding global warming to +1.5°C by 2030(3)
(2) I do not live in NY-14, so she is not my congresswoman, but I do live in a neighboring district.
(4) For the sake of this diary, we will ignore the very real risk that there aren’t enough rare earth minerals available to build this many solar solar panels and wind turbines.
(5) Now, we also have to electrify everything to make this work. We would need to electrify 140,000 miles of rail, replace 98% of the 263.6 million passenger vehicles with electric vehicles(6), the 141.8 million commercial vehicles with electric trucks, the 5.7 million homes that use fuel oil and the 62 million homes that use natural gas with electric heat. There’s nothing we can do about air travel with current technology, so we will assume that we can use biofuel or electrically generated synthetic fuel or something that might exist by 2030.
(6) 2.1% of passenger vehicles in the United States are already electric.
(7) Again, please note there is a raging debate as to whether this is even possible.
(8) Rep. Ocasio-Cortez will be 35 on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Just saying.
(9) This analysis assumes only 80% renewable energy. Additional storage would be required for 100% renewable energy as called for by the Green New Deal.
(10) Yes, I know steam is a greenhouse gas.
(11) Did you know you can take hydrogen, carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, and make diesel fuel? Yes, you can.
(12) In an era of Not in My Back Yard (NIMBY), permitting and approval, not science, are the biggest obstacles.
(Crossposted from DailyKos.)