Senate Climate Debate: Six to Watch on the Climb to Sixty

Back in late spring, critics on the left attacked the Waxman-Markey bill for compromising on carbon credits even as the right slapped on the “energy tax” label, and - at least if early September is any indication - that label has stuck.

It is not clear that President Obama and Majority Leader Harry Reid (pictured left with New Mexico Democrat Jeff Bingaman - another key climate voice) can win a simple majority for carbon-capping climate change legislation this year, with industrial state Dems already defecting, but the lift for Reid and his whips will be even tougher: they cannot overcome a GOP filibuster without a 60 vote super-majority.

If those Senators in favor of climate legislation get the 60 votes they need to block a filibuster and pass a climate bill, they likely can’t do it without a little help from these six. These are the six Senators that lobbyists will be courting, the White House will be pressing, and you should be watching in the coming days and weeks as the Senate addresses climate change.

A JUGGLING ACT WORTHY OF THE VEGAS STRIP

Harry Reid - Democrat, Nevada - Senate Majority Leader

President Obama wanted a climate change bill through the House by Memorial Day…then by the 4th of July. But, he also wanted the stimulus done, he wanted health care, he wanted his Supreme Court nominee, and he wanted it all done fast. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi managed that lift in the House and now it will be Reid’s turn on the Senate side. The juggling act may be too much to get a bill this year, especially now that health care seems to be have claimed the number one spot.

COMMITTEE CLOUT

Jeff Bingaman - Democrat, New Mexico - Chairman, Energy and Natural Resources Committee

Where the House leaders on climate change came from deep blue country (Waxman in California and Markey in Massachusetts), Bingaman joins Reid as an essential leader from a wide-open Western state with mixed emotions on energy. Bingaman has been proactive on several energy issues, including his own proposal to overhaul the nation’s transmission grid. We know the New Mexican wants to capture wind, solar and transmission dollars for his state, and with his proposal to allow more offshore oil drilling in the Gulf, he has demonstrated a willingness to trade horses to get something through committee that has a chance to make it to a floor vote

Barbara Boxer - Democrat, California - Chairwoman, Environment and Public Works Committee

Several committees will have their say on the climate bill, but Boxer’s left-leaning committee will be among the most important. As a self-imposed summer deadline for her Boxer-Kerry bill (with Massachusetts’ John Kerry) approached, the pair announced that they are still pushing for a Senate bill to come out of committee by the close of September — in spite of a host of “delays.” Boxer’s optimism stands in sharp contrast to the more guarded approach she was taking as recently as early February.

THE RINOs

Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe - Republicans, Maine

Collins and Snowe infuriated conservative commentators with their support of the stimulus bill, but have since been eclipsed by Arlen Specter’s (Democrat, Pennsylvania) defection. The White House and the Senate leadership is purported to be putting a full-court press on Snowe to bring her into the fold - and away from her party - on health care. Still, both “Vacationland” Senators are considered likely to support a climate change bill, along with the rest of their New England colleagues. But, if the bill does not have 60, can they afford the wrath of the Party if they push another Obama victory drive across the goal line?

THE NEW GUY

Al Franken - Democrat, Minnesota

It took a while for Franken to land in Washington, but he went straight from election debacle frying pan into the governing fire. His seat on the Judiciary Committee brought him in on the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor within days of arriving on Capitol Hill, and he fired a shot across the White House’s bow on climate change before leaving for the summer. Franken joined nine other industrial/agricultural state Senators in signing a letter to the President that was alternately described in the media as “a warning” or “a threat” that climate change legislation would not pass without provisions protecting American industry from low-cost overseas competition that is not confronted with absorbing carbon costs and other externalities.

Can these six lead the charge to 60 and win passage of a Senate bill this year? Join me in adding your prediction to the comments section.

Tweet This Post