Can We Really Get Back to 350 ppm?

Today is 350.org’s International Day of Climate Action, during which people around the world are trying to call attention to our need to bring the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere back down to 350 parts-per-million (ppm). A noble cause, to be sure — but can we actually do it?

As of today, we sit at about 387 ppm (and about 435 ppm of “carbon dioxide equivalents,” which are other greenhouse gases like methane). Before the start of the industrial revolution a couple hundred years ago, we spent the rest of the years of human history at right around 275 ppm. Then, we started burning stuff, and before you know it, the Maldives might be under water. Most experts agree that 350 is the appropriate target toward which we should shoot if we hope to avoid some of the most catastrophic effects of a warming world. In fact, if the climbing CO2 levels soar past certain thresholds—we’re not exactly sure where—then various feedback loops might kick in and even with a complete stop on emissions we could run right through 800 ppm and maybe even reach 1000. This would not be good.

So how do we avoid that possibility? According to the great environmental writer and 350.org founder Bill McKibben, it involves “a very rapid halt to the use of coal, gas and oil so that forests and oceans can absorb some of that carbon.” This highlights the fact that this needs to be a global, top-down type of effort: it involves changing how the entire world uses its resources, and, although I’m sure many will disagree with this, it doesn’t really involve you buying a hybrid instead of an SUV. It involves the SUV not existing, or the gas to power it being completely priced out of your range. To quote an off-the-record President Obama (well, candidate/Senator Obama at the time): “We can’t solve global warming because I f—ing changed light bulbs in my house.”

So, as usual, I return to things like Waxman-Markey, the Kerry-Boxer bill in the Senate, and, most importantly, COP15 in Copenhagen. I would like to think that the 5,242 climate action events in 181 countries today will help motivate our soon-to-be-Copenhagen-bound leaders to get something done, but I have my doubts. I can’t think of another so clearly scientific issue being dealt with on so purely a political level before; there isn’t precedent for it. The number 350 hangs in the air over all our heads, and we’re relying on a gathering of politicians and diplomats to make the gas match the fantasy.

[Images courtesy of 350.org on Flickr.]

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