Q&A: What does the new German coalition government mean for climate change?
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- Published on December 6th, 2021
Following two months of negotiations, three political parties have agreed to form a new government in Germany, after hammering out a deal that includes plans to rapidly scale up renewables and “ideally” phase out coal power by 2030.
By Josh Gabbatiss
Carbon Brief
Climate change was seen as an important issue in a federal election that coincided with deadly flooding in western parts of the country, linked to rising global temperatures.
The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) emerged victorious in September and have since agreed a coalition treaty with the Green party and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). They will form the first “traffic light” coalition government at federal level.
This marks the end of a 16-year period in which Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) ruled in coalition and oversaw significant expansion of the nation’s renewable power, but also faced criticism for phasing out nuclear and continuing to rely on coal.
With the SPD’s Olaf Scholz set to take over as chancellor of Europe’s largest economy – and biggest emitter – his government’s decisions on energy and transport will have major implications. The nation is currently not on track to meet its recently revised climate targets.
In this piece, Carbon Brief explores the current state of climate action in Germany and the path ahead for its new government, including the details laid out in a new treaty that will form the basis of the coalition’s policies.
What is the state of climate politics in Germany?
This year’s federal election was marked out as different when polls briefly showed the Green Party overtaking the ruling centre-right CDU and sister party the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) in public favour for the first time in years.
This can be seen in the chart below, with previousCDU coalition partners the SPD ultimately overtaking the Greens as the year wore on.
This progress for the Greens was attributed in part to the importance of climate change among the German electorate. Ultimately, the party took the third-largest share of votes after the dominant SPD and CDU, earning a key position in the new coalition.
Many pundits and analysts dubbed it the “climate election”, although others argued that climate concerns ultimately failed to sway as many voters as initially predicted.
Various polls in the run up to election day indicated that climate change was a cause for concern among Germans, and a survey of 28 countries carried out by Ipsos and released at the start of September found that they were the most worried of all those asked.
In recent years Germany has been repeatedly struck by extreme weather, including droughts and floods, and a significant youth climate protest movement has emerged.
At the height of the election campaign, devastating floods struck areas of the country, killing around 200 people. A subsequent attribution study revealed the event was made up to nine times more likely by rising global temperatures.
The election also took place at a time of intense scrutiny for German climate policy. Despite years of growth in renewable power as the nation undertook its Energiewende – energy transition – to shift away from both coal and nuclear power, the country has nevertheless made mixed progress on reducing its emissions.
After admitting it would fall short of the country’s climate goal for 2020, the coalition CDU/CSU and SPD government introduced Germany’s first ever climate action law in 2019, legally defining its emissions targets for the first time.
However, the package was dismissed by NGOs and thinktanks as “shockingly feeble” and “far too cautious”, in part due to its low carbon price.
Shortly before the election, a landmark court decision ruled that Germany’s climate law was insufficient on the grounds of intergenerational justice, requiring the government to provide details of its emissions reduction targets beyond 2030.
Responding to the ruling, the German parliament amended the law to bring forward its net-zero target by five years to 2045 and tighten its 2030 target from a 55% cut compared to 1990, to a 65% cut over the same timeframe. It also set a new target of an 88% cut by 2040.
However, the bill was opposed by some parties including the Greens and the FDP, which have since joined the SPD in a coalition. The Greens called for more ambition while the FDP described it as inefficient.
Meanwhile, July saw the European Commission release its proposals for how the European Union (EU) should ramp up its climate action in order to meet its legally binding target to cut emissions to 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, known as the “Fit for 55” package.
The proposed changes, which will now undergo lengthy negotiations among member states, were welcomed by then-state environment secretary and SPD politician Jochen Flasbarth as “nothing less than a new industrial revolution in the EU”.
What are the coalition parties’ positions on climate change?
There is a general consensus across German politics on climate change, with every major party backing a net-zero target of between 2040 and 2050 going into the election. Only the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) explicitly opposes climate action.
However, the parties have different approaches to climate change that are likely to shape Germany’s progress in the coming years under its new “traffic light” coalition government of the SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and Greens.
Broadly speaking, the Green party has the most ambitious climate policies, campaigning for a petrol and diesel car phaseout by 2030, 100% renewable electricity by 2035 and, if that is achieved, the party says net-zero emissions would be possible “within 20 years”.
The FDP, on the other hand, did not campaign on targets for reaching 100% renewables or phasing out fossil-fuelled cars, calling for a net-zero target of 2050.
Finally the SPD, which took nearly as many votes as the other two parties put together, has a more middle-of-the-road approach to climate action. Its net-zero manifesto target was 2045, matching the one recently set into German law, and it also had a target of 100% renewable electricity by 2040.
These policies can all be seen in a grid of manifesto pledges assembled by Clean Energy Wire.
The SPD’s Scholz, who is expected to take over as chancellor in early December, is a relatively unknown quantity when it comes to climate issues.
While he pledged to “halt man-made climate change” following the election result, his voting record shows he has focused more on regional issues in state parliament than climate policy, according to analysis by Deutsche Welle.
Analysis conducted ahead of the election by the consultancy DIW ECON, commissioned by the Climate Neutrality Foundation, concluded that none of the parties likely to end up in government had manifestos that matched up to the ambition of Germany’s climate goals.
(This is perhaps unsurprising given that these plans were largely finalised by the time the climate law was revised in June.)
Notably, the report concluded that the FDP’s strategy was the least ambitious on climate, and the Greens’ was the most ambitious, with the SPD in the middle.
The different stances could be significant now these parties have joined together in coalition, dividing up ministries between them.
As the chart below shows, the SPD, as the party with the most votes, has the largest remit but is only set to run two ministries viewed as important for climate goals – overseeing buildings and “economic cooperation and development”.
Meanwhile the Green party will be responsible for five ministries, including the environment and agriculture as well as a newly formed “super ministry” for climate, energy and the economy, led by the party’s co-leader Robert Habeck, who will also be vice-chancellor.
However, during negotiations the Greens had also pushed to take on both the finance and transport ministries – both of which have significant climate responsibilities – but ultimately they lost out to the FDP.
While the party’s fiscally conservative outlook could be viewed as a barrier to climate spending, Frank Steffe, a policy expert at thinktank Agora Energiewende, tells Carbon Brief:
“We have the climate goals, we have the climate law, the European green goal and we have the Paris Agreement…. The FDP can read all these laws.”
He noted that while the initial coalition treaty did not contain new spending figures, it does include references to financial measures and strong language around reaching 1.5C.
The FDP, which campaigned on a rejection of both speed limits and bans for petrol and diesel cars, will now also be charged with overseeing the decarbonisation of German vehicles.
Dr Giulio Mattioli, a transport policy researcher at Technical University Dortmund, tells Carbon Brief that broadly the FDP supports market-based solutions and technology at the expense of demand-side measures. It also emphasises the “strong emotional attachment of voters to cars”, he adds.
Nevertheless, Dr Brigitte Knopf, secretary general of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) tells Carbon Brief.
“When presenting the coalition agreement, the new partners tried to give the impression that something new can be formed out of the old antagonisms and that Germany can really move forward…Even the FDP agrees to a ‘transformation of the automotive industry’ – acknowledging that the age of the combustion engine has come to an end.”
How is Germany progressing on its climate targets?
Germany has consistently been off track against its climate targets. For years, there were warnings that the nation would likely fall short of its 2020 goal to cut emissions by 40% from 1990 levels.
A government report in 2018 suggested cuts would be closer to 32%. A government report blamed unexpectedly high economic and population growth, although some observers have argued that the biggest threat to the government’s target remains its reliance on coal power.
As the chart below shows, while there has been progress in cutting emissions from energy industries – including the power sector and other operations such as oil refineries – key sectors such as transport have seen little change.
As the chart below shows, while there has been progress in cutting emissions from energy industries – including the power sector and other operations such as oil refineries – key sectors such as transport have seen little change.
Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany by sector, 1990-2020, with preliminary data for 2020. The grey bar indicates a projection by thinktank Agora Energiewende for 2021 and the black bars indicate the government’s targets set in its climate law of a 65% cut from 1990 levels by 2030 and an 88% cut by 2040. Source: German Environment Agency, Agora Energiewende. Chart by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
As it turned out, according to thinktank Agora Energiewende, Germany managed to overachieve on its 2020 target, cutting emissions by 42.3% from 1990 levels, compared to the 40% goal.
However, this would likely not have been the case were it not for the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic causing a last-minute dip in emissions, with the environment ministry itself admitting its policies would only have delivered a 37.5% cut.
Indeed, recent analysis by Agora Energiewende suggests that following the Covid-19 dip, 2021 is now seeing the fastest increase in emissions for at least three decades.
With 2030 on the horizon, Germany once again looks set to miss its next set of targets, unless it implements stronger policies to close the gap.
Official analysis from 2019 based on the original goal – a 55% cut by 2030 – suggested the government was far off track,. The latest government analysis suggests the country will not meet its new, more ambitious target either.
Rather than cutting emissions by 65% by 2030, a leaked version of the document, reported by German press in August, indicated that only a 49% cut was expected in this timeframe. By 2040, emissions were only expected to fall 67%, rather than 88%.
The environment ministry argued that the report was already outdated as its cut-off point in August 2020 meant it did not include the rapid developments in climate policy that had taken place in the intervening year.
Nevertheless, experts say that far more will be needed to meet the new targets. Cora Herwartz, a policy adviser based in Berlin with thinktank E3G tells Carbon Brief:
“The new climate law put the incoming government under pressure to quickly come up with an implementation strategy fit to deliver the necessary emission cuts. Otherwise, Germany will not be able to reclaim its climate frontrunner role in a credible way.”
Germany now generates nearly half of its electricity from renewables, which overtook fossil sources for the first time in 2020, after years of investment. However, despite roughly halving coal use since 2015, its grid remains heavily reliant on the fuel, making the sector one of the key barriers to further decarbonisation.
While wind and solar have experienced enormous growth under Germany’s Energiewende, the accompanying shutdown of nuclear power plants means part of the expansion has simply replaced one form of clean power with another, as the chart below shows.
Electricity generation in Germany by fuel, 1985-2020 (Terawatt hours). Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
In order to avoid a “green electricity gap”, Prof Claudia Kemfert, who leads on energy, transport and the environment at the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW Berlin), told Carbon Brief ahead of the election that annual expansion rates for renewable technologies need to be tripled.
“Not only because Europe has tightened its climate targets once again and Germany must quickly follow suit. But above all because the German government is clearly underestimating future electricity demand,” she added. (The most recent government estimate was for 2030 electricity demand to reach 658 terawatt-hours, TWh, but the new coalition deal accounts for demand increasing to 680-750TWh.)
Dr Ralph Harthan, a senior researcher at the Öko-Institut, which helps to produce the reports assessing Germany’s climate progress, tells Carbon Brief that other areas also present significant challenges:
“Due to the inertia of the capital stock, the buildings and the transport sectors constitute the most significant challenges for achieving the 2030 emission targets”
A proposal released in August by a group of German thinktanks called for whichever government took power to “implement a comprehensive climate action emergency programme in its first 100 days”. Their 50 recommendations included the following targets by 2030, several of which have been adopted by the incoming coalition (see below)
- A coal power phaseout by 2030, rather than 2038.
- Expansion of renewables to cover 70% of power generation.
- 14m electric cars on the road.
- One-third of the distance covered by lorries to be “CO2 free”.
- €12bn per year to fund zero-carbon new buildings and green renovations.
- Introduce carbon contracts for difference (CCfD) to help decarbonise heavy industry.
The required action would constitute the “biggest climate action programme in the history of the federal republic”, according to Agora Energiewende executive director Dr Patrick Graichen, who has since taken on a role within the new climate ministry.
It is worth noting that according to Climate Action Tracker, to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C ambition, Germany’s 2030 target should aim for emission reductions of “at least 69% below 1990 levels” – 4 percentage points more than the current goal.
What has the coalition pledged so far on climate and energy?
The new coalition has released a treaty outlining its policies over the next four years, titled “Daring more progress – alliance for freedom, justice and sustainability”.
Climate and energy are both prominent topics in the document, and many of the commitments match up with the proposals laid out by climate experts in the run-up to election day.
However, experts tell Carbon Brief there is also evidence in the text of the struggles of three different parties searching for compromise on hotly contested issues.
The text emphasises the importance of making Germany’s emissions compatible with a pathway to the 1.5C global warming target. However, experts predicted that the policies laid out in the treaty alone would not be enough to get there.
Climate targets
Even though Germany’s climate targets were already being strengthened as parties campaigned, the ambition of these targets remained a source of dispute during coalition discussions.
The Greens wanted to see Germany’s 2030 goal increased from a 55% emissions reduction to 70%. The SPD had also campaigned for the short-term goal to be strengthened, although only to the 65% cut that has already been legislated.
Meanwhile, the FDP wanted to get rid of sectoral emissions targets, which were only recently introduced in Germany’s climate law for the years 2020-2030.
