Japan’s Bold New Emissions Target (Note: Not Really Bold)
As reported today in the New York Times, Japan’s Prime Minister Taro Aso announced new greenhouse gas emissions targets for the country. Japan will attempt to reduce emissions to 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, which is about equivalent to eight percent below 1990 levels. Japan is a participant in the Kyoto Protocols, which was signed in 1990 and calls for a six percent reduction in emissions by 2012. According to the Times article, Japan is finding it difficult to meet that target.
I find this announcement somewhat fascinating, for a few reasons. Critics will say that the new targets aren’t remotely bold enough for the world’s second largest economy and fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, just as some say the cuts proposed for the US in the Waxman-Markey Bill are off the mark. The fascinating part, though is how similarly off the mark the Japanese target is to the American target. Waxman-Markey would require a reduction by 17 percent of 2005 levels, only slightly better than the Japanese goal compared to their 2005 levels. And the US goal is even worse than Japan when compared to 1990 levels, from which Waxman-Markey will only require a six percent reduction by 2020.
Much of the rhetoric about mitigating climate change these days has to do with the strong, developed nations—like, say, Japan and the United States—setting a precedent that other countries like China will then be compelled to follow. With the two biggest economies in the world setting these piddling mid-term reduction goals (as opposed to long-term goals with 2050 targets), isn’t that battle largely over before it begins? Did Japan see what the US legislation is proposing and basically match it? Or the other way around? Is there some tacit agreement that this is as good as we can do?
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All of this climate legislation wrangling is being done in anticipation of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as COP15) to take place in Copenhagen in December. Some think if the US, the European Union, Japan and others set strong emission reductions goals before that meeting, achieving a worldwide agreement akin to the Kyoto Protocol (except, you know, better) that may actually help mitigate catastrophic climate change might be possible. For the record, the EU has agreed to cut emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels, and by 30 percent, according to the Times, if “other wealthy nations follow suit.” No one wants to be the first to jump in the pool, but if everyone else jumps in, then sure, why not?
And while Japan’s emissions targets don’t exactly blow the mind with their ambitiousness, at least they kick the crap out of China. According to an AFP article today, the world’s most populous country is currently saying an outright “no” to any economy-wide cap on emissions, regardless of target. In other words, their emissions will continue to rise steadily, and they’re cool with that. China does aim to get at least 18 percent, and as much as 20 percent, of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. So there’s that, I suppose.
China, along with the US, was not a signatory on the Kyoto Protocol. If the Copenhagen meetings later this year are going to accomplish anything at all in terms of realistic climate change mitigation (1000 ppm, anyone?), these countries, as well as India and pretty much everyone else, needs to climb on board. And while I’ve been something of a cheerleader for Waxman-Markey so far, it is largely because I find it amazing that this country is trying to do anything at all about climate change. If I had my druthers, we would do a whole lot more. Progress is progress, and a step in the right direction, and all that, but… Japan, China, US? Your economies will probably collapse a whole lot worse in the next few decades/centuries if those emissions targets don’t get a whole lot more ambitious.
Image courtesy of tomsaint11 at flickr via a Creative Commons license.
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About the Author
Dave Levitan Dave is a science writer focusing on science, health and the environment. You can find other examples of his work at davelevitan.com. Follow him on Twitter @davelevitan.
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