Canadian Election Results

  • Published on May 2nd, 2011
Update noon:
My analysis is up, in which I explain all this upheaval:
And Michael Ignatieff has stepped down as the Liberal Leader. It’s a brave new world…

Update: 4:00 AM:
Tentative final numbers:
.                        2011:        2008:        Percent:  Percent 2008
Conservative 167           143                 39.62          37.63
NDP                    102             36                 30.62          18.2
Liberal               34              77                 18.91            26.24
Bloc                       4              47                   6.05             9.97
Green                    1              0                      3.91              6.8

Quick summary of wtf happened: The Tories took 30 of 44 Greater Toronto seats. That was supposed to be the Liberals’ bunker for their final stand. Not so much.

Longer version of wtf happend, my post-mortem analysis piece: “You have to outrun the bear” and other iron laws of politics.

For provincial breakdown, we present this handy-dandy chart from RidingByRiding.ca. 72 Tory seats in Ontario!
Chart from RidingByRiding.ca
UPDATE: 2:31 AM:
buzzbishop wins my Tweet of the Night:
“Your car has more seats than the Bloc. #elxn41“
UPDATE 1:00 AM:
I think this will be my last update for the evening. Check back for my post-mortem in the morning.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 162             4                 39.58
NDP                     98              5                  30.71
Liberal               31              3                 18.85
Bloc                       3              1                   6.14
Green                   1               0                  3.84
Thank you all for helping me make it through a difficult and disappointing evening.
UPDATE 12:45 AM:
The Tories took two seats from NDP, while losing six back to them
They lost one seat to Elizabeth May and the Green party.
They took a single seat from the Bloc (while the NDP nabbed 46!)
How did the Tories win?
By taking TWENTY SIX seats from the hapless Liberals.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 159             7                 39.68
NDP                     98              6                  30.81
Liberal               30              4                 18.73
Bloc                       3               0                   6.12
Green                    1               0                  3.79
Gilles Duceppe has resigned as leader of the Bloc Québécois, what else could he do? His party has been reduced to 3 seats.
Ignatieff says he will not resign. My guess: If he won’t jump, the pushing will start tomorrow morning.
UPDATE 12:30 AM:
Stick a fork in it.
Let’s see what Iggy does now…
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 156           10                39.67
NDP             98              6                30.82
Liberal          29              5                 18.73
Bloc              3               0                   6.12
Green            1               0                  3.78
UPDATE 12:20 AM:
The fat lady is in the wings, warming up.
I totally blame Ignatieff.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 154           13                39.79
NDP                     98              5                30.83
Liberal               29              5                 18.71
Bloc                       2               1                   6.12
Green                   0               1                  3.76
UPDATE 12:00 AM:
Dare we hope? One of those ridings I talked about 15 minutes ago – Etobicoke Centre – swings back from Tory blue to Liberal Red. Scarborough-Gildwood, too. And in the vast Nipising-Timiskaming riding, Tory Jay Aspin leads Lib Anthony Rota by a grand total of THREE votes!
It’s gonna be a squeaker
…. and while I watch those seats, the Tories ratchet up three more elsewhere. Damn.
T.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 149           17                39.79
NDP                      94              9                30.83
Liberal                28              6                 18.92
Bloc                        1               2                   5.98
Green                     0               1                  3.65
UPDATE 11:50 PM:
I’ve got 2 seats in BC, 2 in Manitoba and a half dozen in Ontario where the Tories are leading, but only by a fistful of votes.
They need ten more for a majority… it could still be tight.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 148            16                39.79
NDP                      93              13                30.83
Liberal                27              8                  18.92
Bloc                        1               1                   5.98
Green                     0               1                  3.65
It really did all came down to Ontario. Prior to tonight, the Liberals had 31 seats in the greater Toronto region. There are now 6 left – Bob Rae holds out in Toronto Centre, but no Iggy.
The Libs will be lucky to hang on to 31 for the whole country. Looks like they’re down to 2 in BC.
UPDATE 11:30 PM:
10 firm seats to a Conservative majority.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 145            23                39.96
NDP                    91              11                30.79
Liberal                24              9                  19.21
Bloc                       1               2                   5.7
Green                   0               1                  3.56
UPDATE 11:15 PM:
What happened? It looks pretty simple.
Voters abandon the trailing party and vote for one of the two parties that can form a government. The Liberals forgot that this time around, THEY are the trailing party.
By spending the last week whipping up the big Red Scare against Jack Layton and the NDP, all Ignatieff did was convince a lot of the Liberal voters who might have jumped ship to the NDP to go to the Tories instead. Well played, Iggy!
Instead of saying “The real danger is the Conservatives, vote for whichever left party will block them, and we promise to work together for a better Canada,” Ignatieff played the fear card. And now it looks like he’ll lose his own seat, to boot.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 144            22                39.96
NDP                    83              22                30.86
Liberal              24              9                  19.38
Bloc                     0               3                   5.54
Green                  0               1                  3.51
Duceppe is losing his seat as well. Meanwhile, Elizabeth May is still on track to gain her seat for the Green Party.
UPDATE 11:00 PM:
Before you despair… I’m counting 8 seats just in Metro Toronto where the Tories are “leading”, but only by a handful. That could make the difference, plus Vancouver.
The bad news: The Liberals have well and truly collapsed. They’re pulling in a pathetic 23 percent IN ONTARIO, a distant third place.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 130            37                40.04
NDP                    78              28                30.94
Liberal              19             10                19.77
Bloc                      0               3                   5.15
Green                   0               1                  3.43
The main scene of the Liberal bloodbath is the Toronto and Vancouver ridings, which remain close… still could be a long night.
UPDATE 10:50 PM:
The Conservatives are leading in enough seats for a majority. If these numbers hold up, this is NOT looking good. The Conservatives look to be taking 25 seats, all but 4 from the Liberals. The NDP has nabbed five of their seats, plus 11 from the Libs and 32! from the Bloc.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 122            42                40.02
NDP                     70              33                30.92
Liberal               17             15                20.31
Bloc                       0               4                   4.72
Green                    0               1                  3.39
The main scene of the Liberal bloodbath is the Toronto and Vancouver ridings, which remain close… still could be a long night.
UPDATE 10:35 PM:
The rural ridings have fallen about the way they were expected, although NDP is taking more in Northern Ontario than we might have expected. As for the Liberal bastion of Toronto – it’s looking bad for them at the moment, but it could be a very long night.
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 102            52                39.9
NDP                    37              69                30.87
Liberal               15             16                21.04
Bloc                      0               3                   4.2
Green                   0               0                  3.35
The Conservatives are polling higher than expected everywhere, as is the NDP. Looks like it’s mostly at the expense of the Liberals. And the Bloc is GONE.
UPDATE 10:20 PM:
Things firming up with lots of Tory votes coming in from the West
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 74             68                40.06
NDP                    21             78                30.48
Liberal               12             19                22.46
Bloc                     0               4                   3.2
Green                  0               0                  3.28
Based on these numbers, the CBC is calling it for the Tories… as a minority government.
But we’re still too close to see how this will shake out.  Lots of ridings in Ontario are very close… we’ll get some reports on that as soon as we can.
The big news is the complete collapse of the Bloc – they’re polling less than the Greens!

UPDATE 10 PM:
First results from Atlantic Canada and rural Ontario:
.                          Taken:   Leading in:    Percent:
Conservative 29                         105                    38.89
NDP                      8                           68                     30.02
Liberal               11                          17                     25.78
Bloc                      0                            7                          1.6
Green                   0                            0                         3.13

This includes an NDP near sweep in Quebec, including wipeouts of most Libs and Tories in Montreal and Quebec City

This will be tricky… there’s a law on the books the prevents the dissemination of election results before all the polls are closed, and Canada is a biiig country.

Polls have closed Eastern Canada, but they won’t close in BC until 10 pm Eastern time. So we’ll report what we can as things trickle in.

In the meantime, check out our backgrounders here:

About the Author

Jeremy Bloom is the Editor of RedGreenAndBlue. He lives in New York, where he combines his passion for the environment with his passion for film, and is working on making the world a better place.

13 comments

    • Because in minority a lack of good government can be blamed on the opposition.
      He was given his majority, now what he does (or doesn’t do) is on him.
      Here’s to hoping for the best, though. He might surprise us in majority. Who knows?
      This election did have a lot of good changes, though. Such as the fall of the Bloc Quebecois and the Green party getting a seat.
      Plus, the official opposition being a third party (not the Conservatives or the Liberals) also shows that the two-party politics that has tried to be pushed isn’t the way it is.

  • Thank you very much for the election results. I am on mission in Haiti and have been following your updates all night. The best I could find!!!!!!

    • Comment from a canadian living in Nevada: From the election map, it looks like everyone on welfare or who works for the government voted for the NDP. Working folks voted conservative. Perhaps Canadians have learned the differnce between Production and Consumption.

      • Comment from a Canadian living in Canada (and therefore might actually know something):
        Looks like you’re somebody who is overly critical, biased, and judgemental.
        For instance, my mother works two jobs, neither for the government, and is not on government benefits. However, we rely on social programs (Such as health care) and vote in favour of free, public, social programs. Something the Conservative Party of Canada doesn’t promise us.
        So before you criticize every view other than your own and insult such a broad range of people, try to think.

  • Glad you Canadians up there are finally starting to vote sensibly. Major probs from the American Midwest!

  • This is FABULOUS!

    People are sick of the declining liberal values, and want responsible government to rule.

    The NDP is nothing more than Communism lite.

    Rock on Harper!

Comments are closed.