ENSO is still in neutral, and likely to continue so through the summer. However, the 50-55% chance of La Niña developing in the fall and lasting through winter means NOAA has hoisted a La Niña Watch. By Emily Becker NOAA What’s a Watch? I’ve been writing these blog posts for more than six years now, and the terminology La […]
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After several months of hovering above average, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have dropped rapidly in recent weeks. The current CPC/IRI ENSO forecast estimates about a 60% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will remain through the summer. Chances for the fall and winter are about equally split between neutral continuing and La Niña developing, at around […]
Ocean heat content (OHC) set a new record in the first half of 2018, with more warmth in the oceans than at any time since OHC records began in 1940. That’s one of the headlines from Carbon Brief’s latest “state of the climate” report, a quarterly series on global climate data that now includes temperatures, ocean […]
Climate models indicate that at least a weak El Nino will begin this (Northern Hemisphere) winter; observations show that warming in the tropical Pacific has begun. This implies that the current La Nina minimum global temperature has bottomed out and the 12-month running mean global temperature will begin to rise during the next few months. Global temperature minima […]
Temperatures on the Earth’s surface in the first half of 2018 were lower than over the same period for the three previous years. This was due, in part, to a moderate La Niña event during late 2017 and the first half of 2018. However, the world is quickly switching to El Niño conditions, which should contribute […]
One of the key questions of our time: If there is climate change, how bad would the effects be?
A new study shows that the modest disruption of the El Niño global climate cycle doubles the chance of war breaking out.
El Nino is blamed for changing rainfall patterns, and that, combined with inadequate harvests and increasing conflict has led to a drop in cereal production already affecting Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. This could increase the number of people relying on food aid.